President Trump’s controversial decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital points to the most important strategic reality in the Middle East: Arab power is collapsing because of low oil prices and competition from American frackers. The U.S. has been looking for ways to break OPEC’s grip on the oil market since the 1970s. The most decisive development was that decades of public and private research and investment started an American oil-and-gas boom. This shook up world affairs, and because of multiple factors, the Gulf states increasingly see Israel as something that can defend them from Iran.
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